NBA Finals · 2015-16
7 games · Cleveland Cavaliers advanced
Every game
Game 1Jun 2
CLE 89@
GS 10424·19·25·21 / 28·24·22·3068%Game 2Jun 5CLE 77@GS 11021·23·18·15 / 19·33·30·2873%Game 3Jun 8GS 90@CLE 12016·27·26·21 / 33·18·38·3154%Game 4Jun 10GS 108@CLE 9729·21·29·29 / 28·27·22·2039%Game 5Jun 13CLE 112@GS 9729·32·32·19 / 32·29·23·1327%Game 6Jun 16GS 101@CLE 11511·32·28·30 / 31·28·21·3563%Game 7Jun 19CLE 93@GS 8923·19·33·18 / 22·27·27·1334%
CLE 89@GS 10424·19·25·21 / 28·24·22·3068%Game 2Jun 5CLE 77@GS 11021·23·18·15 / 19·33·30·2873%Game 3Jun 8GS 90@CLE 12016·27·26·21 / 33·18·38·3154%Game 4Jun 10GS 108@CLE 9729·21·29·29 / 28·27·22·2039%Game 5Jun 13CLE 112@GS 9729·32·32·19 / 32·29·23·1327%Game 6Jun 16GS 101@CLE 11511·32·28·30 / 31·28·21·3563%Game 7Jun 19CLE 93@GS 8923·19·33·18 / 22·27·27·1334%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 7
Mean probability on the winner
51.2%
Brier over the series
0.2666
A backtest, and a sample of 7. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.