Conference Semifinals · 2016-17
6 games · San Antonio Spurs advanced
Every game
Game 1May 1
HOU 126@
SA 9934·35·27·30 / 23·16·28·3232%Game 2May 3HOU 96@SA 12130·25·28·13 / 33·32·23·3362%Game 3May 5SA 103@HOU 9219·24·29·31 / 21·18·27·2637%Game 4May 7SA 104@HOU 12522·31·23·28 / 34·23·34·3460%Game 5May 9HOU 107@SA 110OT29·31·25·16 / 32·26·28·1566%Game 6May 11SA 114@HOU 7531·30·26·27 / 24·18·22·1136%
HOU 126@SA 9934·35·27·30 / 23·16·28·3232%Game 2May 3HOU 96@SA 12130·25·28·13 / 33·32·23·3362%Game 3May 5SA 103@HOU 9219·24·29·31 / 21·18·27·2637%Game 4May 7SA 104@HOU 12522·31·23·28 / 34·23·34·3460%Game 5May 9HOU 107@SA 110OT29·31·25·16 / 32·26·28·1566%Game 6May 11SA 114@HOU 7531·30·26·27 / 24·18·22·1136%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
3 of 6
Mean probability on the winner
48.6%
Brier over the series
0.2831
A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.