First Round · 2016-17
4 games · Cleveland Cavaliers advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 15
IND 108@
CLE 10929·30·25·24 / 34·32·26·1764%Game 2Apr 17IND 111@CLE 11729·29·20·33 / 32·31·33·2165%Game 3Apr 20CLE 119@IND 11427·22·35·35 / 37·37·17·2339%Game 4Apr 23CLE 106@IND 10222·36·30·18 / 24·28·25·2540%
IND 108@CLE 10929·30·25·24 / 34·32·26·1764%Game 2Apr 17IND 111@CLE 11729·29·20·33 / 32·31·33·2165%Game 3Apr 20CLE 119@IND 11427·22·35·35 / 37·37·17·2339%Game 4Apr 23CLE 106@IND 10222·36·30·18 / 24·28·25·2540%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
2 of 4
Mean probability on the winner
51.8%
Brier over the series
0.2476
A backtest, and a sample of 4. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.