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Hardwood
2016-17 season

First Round · 2016-17

Toronto Raptors
Toronto Raptors

4

final
Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee Bucks

2

6 games · Toronto Raptors advanced

Every game

Game 1Apr 15Milwaukee BucksMIL 97@Toronto RaptorsTOR 8330·16·29·22 / 22·29·19·1324%Game 2Apr 18Milwaukee BucksMIL 100@Toronto RaptorsTOR 10625·27·31·17 / 28·27·29·2270%Game 3Apr 20Toronto RaptorsTOR 77@Milwaukee BucksMIL 10412·18·16·31 / 32·25·21·2654%Game 4Apr 22Toronto RaptorsTOR 87@Milwaukee BucksMIL 7619·22·23·23 / 19·22·17·1840%Game 5Apr 24Milwaukee BucksMIL 93@Toronto RaptorsTOR 11820·28·25·20 / 31·26·33·2868%Game 6Apr 27Toronto RaptorsTOR 92@Milwaukee BucksMIL 8928·23·23·18 / 24·14·23·2848%

Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.

What the model made of it

Games it favoured correctly

3 of 6

Mean probability on the winner

50.8%

Brier over the series

0.2674

A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.

Forecasts are scored against the closing line. Nothing here is betting advice. How it works