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Hardwood
2016-17 season

First Round · 2016-17

Washington Wizards
Washington Wizards

4

final
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks

2

6 games · Washington Wizards advanced

Every game

Game 1Apr 16Atlanta HawksATL 107@Washington WizardsWSH 11429·19·28·31 / 25·20·38·3175%Game 2Apr 19Atlanta HawksATL 101@Washington WizardsWSH 10924·19·35·23 / 23·28·23·3575%Game 3Apr 22Washington WizardsWSH 98@Atlanta HawksATL 11620·26·21·31 / 38·26·26·2650%Game 4Apr 24Washington WizardsWSH 101@Atlanta HawksATL 11135·15·27·24 / 28·31·18·3455%Game 5Apr 26Atlanta HawksATL 99@Washington WizardsWSH 10325·24·30·20 / 23·27·33·2069%Game 6Apr 28Washington WizardsWSH 115@Atlanta HawksATL 9930·35·24·26 / 23·23·36·1743%

Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.

What the model made of it

Games it favoured correctly

4 of 6

Mean probability on the winner

61.1%

Brier over the series

0.1667

A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.

Forecasts are scored against the closing line. Nothing here is betting advice. How it works