First Round · 2016-17
4 games · Golden State Warriors advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 16
POR 109@
GS 12127·29·32·21 / 31·25·32·3385%Game 2Apr 19POR 81@GS 11017·29·12·23 / 33·22·28·2786%Game 3Apr 22GS 119@POR 11330·24·33·32 / 37·30·21·2563%Game 4Apr 24GS 128@POR 10345·27·34·22 / 22·26·32·2364%
POR 109@GS 12127·29·32·21 / 31·25·32·3385%Game 2Apr 19POR 81@GS 11017·29·12·23 / 33·22·28·2786%Game 3Apr 22GS 119@POR 11330·24·33·32 / 37·30·21·2563%Game 4Apr 24GS 128@POR 10345·27·34·22 / 22·26·32·2364%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 4
Mean probability on the winner
74.5%
Brier over the series
0.0770
A backtest, and a sample of 4. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.