First Round · 2016-17
6 games · San Antonio Spurs advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 15
MEM 82@
SA 11130·19·15·18 / 25·27·32·2780%Game 2Apr 17MEM 82@SA 9616·21·28·17 / 29·27·19·2182%Game 3Apr 20SA 94@MEM 10521·25·17·31 / 21·29·31·2438%Game 4Apr 22SA 108@MEM 110OT26·25·20·25 / 23·32·19·2243%Game 5Apr 25MEM 103@SA 11623·26·27·27 / 23·32·32·2979%Game 6Apr 27SA 103@MEM 9624·21·30·28 / 22·28·24·2257%
MEM 82@SA 11130·19·15·18 / 25·27·32·2780%Game 2Apr 17MEM 82@SA 9616·21·28·17 / 29·27·19·2182%Game 3Apr 20SA 94@MEM 10521·25·17·31 / 21·29·31·2438%Game 4Apr 22SA 108@MEM 110OT26·25·20·25 / 23·32·19·2243%Game 5Apr 25MEM 103@SA 11623·26·27·27 / 23·32·32·2979%Game 6Apr 27SA 103@MEM 9624·21·30·28 / 22·28·24·2257%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 6
Mean probability on the winner
63.1%
Brier over the series
0.1690
A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.