Conference Finals · 2016-17
4 games · Golden State Warriors advanced
Every game
Game 1May 14
SA 111@
GS 11330·32·28·21 / 16·26·39·3283%Game 2May 16SA 100@GS 13616·28·31·25 / 33·39·34·3082%Game 3May 20GS 120@SA 10829·35·36·20 / 33·22·33·2055%Game 4May 22GS 129@SA 11531·34·31·33 / 19·32·27·3757%
SA 111@GS 11330·32·28·21 / 16·26·39·3283%Game 2May 16SA 100@GS 13616·28·31·25 / 33·39·34·3082%Game 3May 20GS 120@SA 10829·35·36·20 / 33·22·33·2055%Game 4May 22GS 129@SA 11531·34·31·33 / 19·32·27·3757%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 4
Mean probability on the winner
69.4%
Brier over the series
0.1118
A backtest, and a sample of 4. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.