Conference Semifinals · 2016-17
4 games · Golden State Warriors advanced
Every game
Game 1May 2
UTAH 94@
GS 10621·25·27·21 / 27·31·26·2286%Game 2May 4UTAH 104@GS 11515·32·35·22 / 33·27·32·2385%Game 3May 6GS 102@UTAH 9127·22·23·30 / 17·33·20·2158%Game 4May 8GS 121@UTAH 9539·21·33·28 / 17·35·27·1660%
UTAH 94@GS 10621·25·27·21 / 27·31·26·2286%Game 2May 4UTAH 104@GS 11515·32·35·22 / 33·27·32·2385%Game 3May 6GS 102@UTAH 9127·22·23·30 / 17·33·20·2158%Game 4May 8GS 121@UTAH 9539·21·33·28 / 17·35·27·1660%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 4
Mean probability on the winner
72.2%
Brier over the series
0.0944
A backtest, and a sample of 4. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.