Conference Semifinals · 2016-17
4 games · Cleveland Cavaliers advanced
Every game
Game 1May 1
TOR 105@
CLE 11618·30·26·31 / 30·32·34·2063%Game 2May 3TOR 103@CLE 12522·26·25·30 / 34·28·37·2664%Game 3May 5CLE 115@TOR 9428·21·30·36 / 24·28·25·1739%Game 4May 7CLE 109@TOR 10228·33·24·24 / 28·21·31·2245%
TOR 105@CLE 11618·30·26·31 / 30·32·34·2063%Game 2May 3TOR 103@CLE 12522·26·25·30 / 34·28·37·2664%Game 3May 5CLE 115@TOR 9428·21·30·36 / 24·28·25·1739%Game 4May 7CLE 109@TOR 10228·33·24·24 / 28·21·31·2245%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
2 of 4
Mean probability on the winner
52.8%
Brier over the series
0.2349
A backtest, and a sample of 4. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.