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Hardwood
2016-17 season

Conference Semifinals · 2016-17

Boston Celtics
Boston Celtics

4

final
Washington Wizards
Washington Wizards

3

7 games · Boston Celtics advanced

Every game

Game 1Apr 30Washington WizardsWSH 111@Boston CelticsBOS 12338·26·16·31 / 24·35·36·2869%Game 2May 2Washington WizardsWSH 119@Boston CelticsBOS 129OT42·25·22·25 / 29·35·20·3071%Game 3May 4Boston CelticsBOS 89@Washington WizardsWSH 11617·23·29·20 / 39·24·32·2155%Game 4May 7Boston CelticsBOS 102@Washington WizardsWSH 12124·24·20·34 / 20·28·42·3161%Game 5May 10Washington WizardsWSH 101@Boston CelticsBOS 12321·30·25·25 / 33·34·26·3064%Game 6May 12Boston CelticsBOS 91@Washington WizardsWSH 9217·25·27·22 / 22·19·25·2661%Game 7May 15Washington WizardsWSH 105@Boston CelticsBOS 11523·32·24·26 / 27·26·32·3067%

Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.

What the model made of it

Games it favoured correctly

7 of 7

Mean probability on the winner

64.2%

Brier over the series

0.1310

A backtest, and a sample of 7. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.

Forecasts are scored against the closing line. Nothing here is betting advice. How it works