BOS v CHI · First Round · Hardwood

First Round · 2016-17

4

final

2

6 games · Boston Celtics advanced

Every game

BOS 10223·25·26·32 / 28·18·28·2830%Game 2Apr 18

BOS 9731·23·32·25 / 26·20·29·2233%Game 3Apr 21

CHI 8733·11·32·28 / 15·26·22·2435%Game 4Apr 23

CHI 9530·27·22·25 / 18·28·24·2540%Game 5Apr 26

BOS 10820·30·31·16 / 23·29·27·2970%Game 6Apr 28

CHI 8330·24·34·17 / 23·18·18·2445%

Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.

What the model made of it

Games it favoured correctly

1 of 6

Mean probability on the winner

42.1%

Brier over the series

0.3536

A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.