Conference Finals · 2016-17
5 games · Cleveland Cavaliers advanced
Every game
Game 1May 17
CLE 117@
BOS 10430·31·31·25 / 19·20·36·2940%Game 2May 19CLE 130@BOS 8632·40·31·27 / 18·13·26·2940%Game 3May 21BOS 111@CLE 10824·26·32·29 / 35·31·21·2122%Game 4May 23BOS 99@CLE 11229·28·23·19 / 19·28·40·2576%Game 5May 25CLE 135@BOS 10243·32·34·26 / 27·30·17·2850%
CLE 117@BOS 10430·31·31·25 / 19·20·36·2940%Game 2May 19CLE 130@BOS 8632·40·31·27 / 18·13·26·2940%Game 3May 21BOS 111@CLE 10824·26·32·29 / 35·31·21·2122%Game 4May 23BOS 99@CLE 11229·28·23·19 / 19·28·40·2576%Game 5May 25CLE 135@BOS 10243·32·34·26 / 27·30·17·2850%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
2 of 5
Mean probability on the winner
45.6%
Brier over the series
0.3265
A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.