NBA Finals · 2016-17
5 games · Golden State Warriors advanced
Every game
Game 1Jun 1
CLE 91@
GS 11330·22·20·19 / 35·25·33·2082%Game 2Jun 4CLE 113@GS 13234·30·24·25 / 40·27·35·3084%Game 3Jun 7GS 118@CLE 11339·28·22·29 / 32·29·33·1956%Game 4Jun 9GS 116@CLE 13733·35·28·20 / 49·37·29·2242%Game 5Jun 12CLE 120@GS 12937·23·33·27 / 33·38·27·3181%
CLE 91@GS 11330·22·20·19 / 35·25·33·2082%Game 2Jun 4CLE 113@GS 13234·30·24·25 / 40·27·35·3084%Game 3Jun 7GS 118@CLE 11339·28·22·29 / 32·29·33·1956%Game 4Jun 9GS 116@CLE 13733·35·28·20 / 49·37·29·2242%Game 5Jun 12CLE 120@GS 12937·23·33·27 / 33·38·27·3181%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 5
Mean probability on the winner
69.3%
Brier over the series
0.1229
A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.