First Round · 2017-18
5 games · Houston Rockets advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 15
MIN 101@
HOU 10421·26·25·29 / 27·27·22·2881%Game 2Apr 18MIN 82@HOU 10223·17·18·24 / 18·37·25·2281%Game 3Apr 21HOU 105@MIN 12128·23·24·30 / 27·25·35·3441%Game 4Apr 23HOU 119@MIN 10021·29·50·19 / 21·28·20·3153%Game 5Apr 25MIN 104@HOU 12226·33·15·30 / 25·30·30·3780%
MIN 101@HOU 10421·26·25·29 / 27·27·22·2881%Game 2Apr 18MIN 82@HOU 10223·17·18·24 / 18·37·25·2281%Game 3Apr 21HOU 105@MIN 12128·23·24·30 / 27·25·35·3441%Game 4Apr 23HOU 119@MIN 10021·29·50·19 / 21·28·20·3153%Game 5Apr 25MIN 104@HOU 12226·33·15·30 / 25·30·30·3780%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 5
Mean probability on the winner
67.1%
Brier over the series
0.1373
A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.