Conference Semifinals · 2017-18
5 games · Houston Rockets advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 29
UTAH 96@
HOU 11021·18·29·28 / 34·30·22·2470%Game 2May 2UTAH 116@HOU 10836·28·22·30 / 28·27·30·2329%Game 3May 4HOU 113@UTAH 9239·31·23·20 / 22·18·25·2738%Game 4May 6HOU 100@UTAH 8730·28·21·21 / 23·25·17·2244%Game 5May 8UTAH 102@HOU 11216·30·32·24 / 21·33·21·3775%
UTAH 96@HOU 11021·18·29·28 / 34·30·22·2470%Game 2May 2UTAH 116@HOU 10836·28·22·30 / 28·27·30·2329%Game 3May 4HOU 113@UTAH 9239·31·23·20 / 22·18·25·2738%Game 4May 6HOU 100@UTAH 8730·28·21·21 / 23·25·17·2244%Game 5May 8UTAH 102@HOU 11216·30·32·24 / 21·33·21·3775%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
2 of 5
Mean probability on the winner
51.4%
Brier over the series
0.2689
A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.