Conference Finals · 2017-18
7 games · Golden State Warriors advanced
Every game
Game 1May 14
GS 119@
HOU 10629·27·31·32 / 30·26·24·2623%Game 2May 16GS 105@HOU 12721·29·29·26 / 26·38·31·3273%Game 3May 20HOU 85@GS 12622·21·24·18 / 31·23·34·3853%Game 4May 22HOU 95@GS 9219·34·17·25 / 28·18·34·1239%Game 5May 24GS 94@HOU 9817·28·27·22 / 23·22·26·2769%Game 6May 26HOU 86@GS 11539·22·16·9 / 22·29·33·3159%Game 7May 28GS 101@HOU 9219·24·33·25 / 24·30·15·2336%
GS 119@HOU 10629·27·31·32 / 30·26·24·2623%Game 2May 16GS 105@HOU 12721·29·29·26 / 26·38·31·3273%Game 3May 20HOU 85@GS 12622·21·24·18 / 31·23·34·3853%Game 4May 22HOU 95@GS 9219·34·17·25 / 28·18·34·1239%Game 5May 24GS 94@HOU 9817·28·27·22 / 23·22·26·2769%Game 6May 26HOU 86@GS 11539·22·16·9 / 22·29·33·3159%Game 7May 28GS 101@HOU 9219·24·33·25 / 24·30·15·2336%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 7
Mean probability on the winner
50.2%
Brier over the series
0.2770
A backtest, and a sample of 7. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.