First Round · 2017-18
7 games · Cleveland Cavaliers advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 15
IND 98@
CLE 8033·22·18·25 / 14·24·27·1540%Game 2Apr 18IND 97@CLE 10018·28·21·30 / 33·25·16·2656%Game 3Apr 20CLE 90@IND 9231·26·12·21 / 20·20·23·2966%Game 4Apr 22CLE 104@IND 10030·30·20·24 / 24·26·28·2233%Game 5Apr 25IND 95@CLE 9825·31·17·22 / 23·26·32·1760%Game 6Apr 27CLE 87@IND 12126·21·20·20 / 29·28·35·2963%Game 7Apr 29IND 101@CLE 10519·24·31·27 / 31·23·22·2956%
IND 98@CLE 8033·22·18·25 / 14·24·27·1540%Game 2Apr 18IND 97@CLE 10018·28·21·30 / 33·25·16·2656%Game 3Apr 20CLE 90@IND 9231·26·12·21 / 20·20·23·2966%Game 4Apr 22CLE 104@IND 10030·30·20·24 / 24·26·28·2233%Game 5Apr 25IND 95@CLE 9825·31·17·22 / 23·26·32·1760%Game 6Apr 27CLE 87@IND 12126·21·20·20 / 29·28·35·2963%Game 7Apr 29IND 101@CLE 10519·24·31·27 / 31·23·22·2956%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
5 of 7
Mean probability on the winner
53.4%
Brier over the series
0.2300
A backtest, and a sample of 7. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.