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Hardwood
2017-18 season

First Round · 2017-18

Boston Celtics
Boston Celtics

4

final
Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee Bucks

3

7 games · Boston Celtics advanced

Every game

Game 1Apr 15Milwaukee BucksMIL 107@Boston CelticsBOS 113OT17·30·19·33 / 29·15·26·2970%Game 2Apr 17Milwaukee BucksMIL 106@Boston CelticsBOS 12022·29·24·31 / 33·27·30·3071%Game 3Apr 20Boston CelticsBOS 92@Milwaukee BucksMIL 11612·23·32·25 / 27·31·27·3151%Game 4Apr 22Boston CelticsBOS 102@Milwaukee BucksMIL 10417·18·32·35 / 24·27·24·2957%Game 5Apr 24Milwaukee BucksMIL 87@Boston CelticsBOS 9215·22·24·26 / 23·25·24·2066%Game 6Apr 26Boston CelticsBOS 86@Milwaukee BucksMIL 9724·15·26·21 / 22·26·26·2357%Game 7Apr 28Milwaukee BucksMIL 96@Boston CelticsBOS 11217·25·25·29 / 30·20·31·3165%

Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.

What the model made of it

Games it favoured correctly

7 of 7

Mean probability on the winner

62.4%

Brier over the series

0.1456

A backtest, and a sample of 7. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.

Forecasts are scored against the closing line. Nothing here is betting advice. How it works