First Round · 2017-18
4 games · New Orleans Pelicans advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 14
NO 97@
POR 9521·24·30·22 / 18·18·27·3235%Game 2Apr 17NO 111@POR 10225·29·33·24 / 23·36·19·2437%Game 3Apr 19POR 102@NO 11920·25·25·32 / 36·28·27·2867%Game 4Apr 21POR 123@NO 13125·31·31·36 / 26·32·42·3170%
NO 97@POR 9521·24·30·22 / 18·18·27·3235%Game 2Apr 17NO 111@POR 10225·29·33·24 / 23·36·19·2437%Game 3Apr 19POR 102@NO 11920·25·25·32 / 36·28·27·2867%Game 4Apr 21POR 123@NO 13125·31·31·36 / 26·32·42·3170%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
2 of 4
Mean probability on the winner
52.3%
Brier over the series
0.2533
A backtest, and a sample of 4. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.