First Round · 2017-18
5 games · Golden State Warriors advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 14
SA 92@
GS 11317·24·22·29 / 28·29·29·2762%Game 2Apr 16SA 101@GS 11625·28·22·26 / 23·24·33·3665%Game 3Apr 19GS 110@SA 9726·26·32·26 / 23·23·26·2543%Game 4Apr 22GS 90@SA 10322·20·29·19 / 30·26·21·2654%Game 5Apr 24SA 91@GS 9920·18·27·26 / 22·27·30·2068%
SA 92@GS 11317·24·22·29 / 28·29·29·2762%Game 2Apr 16SA 101@GS 11625·28·22·26 / 23·24·33·3665%Game 3Apr 19GS 110@SA 9726·26·32·26 / 23·23·26·2543%Game 4Apr 22GS 90@SA 10322·20·29·19 / 30·26·21·2654%Game 5Apr 24SA 91@GS 9920·18·27·26 / 22·27·30·2068%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 5
Mean probability on the winner
58.2%
Brier over the series
0.1829
A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.