Skip to main content
Hardwood
2017-18 season

First Round · 2017-18

Toronto Raptors
Toronto Raptors

4

final
Washington Wizards
Washington Wizards

2

6 games · Toronto Raptors advanced

Every game

Game 1Apr 14Washington WizardsWSH 106@Toronto RaptorsTOR 11423·36·26·21 / 28·27·31·2882%Game 2Apr 17Washington WizardsWSH 119@Toronto RaptorsTOR 13027·31·32·29 / 44·32·24·3084%Game 3Apr 20Toronto RaptorsTOR 103@Washington WizardsWSH 12229·32·21·21 / 30·39·32·2136%Game 4Apr 22Toronto RaptorsTOR 98@Washington WizardsWSH 10630·21·29·18 / 22·18·40·2643%Game 5Apr 25Washington WizardsWSH 98@Toronto RaptorsTOR 10824·23·31·20 / 23·25·31·2977%Game 6Apr 27Toronto RaptorsTOR 102@Washington WizardsWSH 9220·30·23·29 / 30·23·25·1455%

Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.

What the model made of it

Games it favoured correctly

4 of 6

Mean probability on the winner

63.0%

Brier over the series

0.1730

A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.

Forecasts are scored against the closing line. Nothing here is betting advice. How it works