Conference Semifinals · 2017-18
4 games · Cleveland Cavaliers advanced
Every game
Game 1May 1
CLE 113@
TOR 112OT19·38·25·23 / 33·27·27·1821%Game 2May 3CLE 128@TOR 11026·35·37·30 / 29·34·24·2324%Game 3May 5TOR 103@CLE 10519·21·25·38 / 24·31·24·2655%Game 4May 7TOR 93@CLE 12826·21·25·21 / 30·33·37·2857%
CLE 113@TOR 112OT19·38·25·23 / 33·27·27·1821%Game 2May 3CLE 128@TOR 11026·35·37·30 / 29·34·24·2324%Game 3May 5TOR 103@CLE 10519·21·25·38 / 24·31·24·2655%Game 4May 7TOR 93@CLE 12826·21·25·21 / 30·33·37·2857%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
2 of 4
Mean probability on the winner
39.2%
Brier over the series
0.3978
A backtest, and a sample of 4. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.