Conference Semifinals · 2017-18
5 games · Boston Celtics advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 30
PHI 101@
BOS 11722·23·30·26 / 25·31·31·3043%Game 2May 3PHI 103@BOS 10831·25·19·28 / 22·29·28·2952%Game 3May 5BOS 101@PHI 98OT19·29·21·20 / 20·31·17·2128%Game 4May 7BOS 92@PHI 10322·21·22·27 / 21·26·29·2769%Game 5May 9PHI 112@BOS 11424·28·30·30 / 25·36·22·3155%
PHI 101@BOS 11722·23·30·26 / 25·31·31·3043%Game 2May 3PHI 103@BOS 10831·25·19·28 / 22·29·28·2952%Game 3May 5BOS 101@PHI 98OT19·29·21·20 / 20·31·17·2128%Game 4May 7BOS 92@PHI 10322·21·22·27 / 21·26·29·2769%Game 5May 9PHI 112@BOS 11424·28·30·30 / 25·36·22·3155%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
3 of 5
Mean probability on the winner
49.6%
Brier over the series
0.2721
A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.