Conference Semifinals · 2017-18
5 games · Golden State Warriors advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 28
NO 101@
GS 12334·21·19·27 / 35·41·27·2055%Game 2May 1NO 116@GS 12129·26·31·30 / 27·31·30·3362%Game 3May 4GS 100@NO 11921·35·19·25 / 30·32·30·2763%Game 4May 6GS 118@NO 9237·24·33·24 / 22·32·19·1934%Game 5May 8NO 104@GS 11326·30·19·29 / 32·27·36·1867%
NO 101@GS 12334·21·19·27 / 35·41·27·2055%Game 2May 1NO 116@GS 12129·26·31·30 / 27·31·30·3362%Game 3May 4GS 100@NO 11921·35·19·25 / 30·32·30·2763%Game 4May 6GS 118@NO 9237·24·33·24 / 22·32·19·1934%Game 5May 8NO 104@GS 11326·30·19·29 / 32·27·36·1867%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 5
Mean probability on the winner
56.3%
Brier over the series
0.2048
A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.