NBA Finals · 2017-18
4 games · Golden State Warriors advanced
Every game
Game 1May 31
CLE 114@
GS 124OT30·26·22·29 / 29·27·28·2374%Game 2Jun 3CLE 103@GS 12228·18·34·23 / 32·27·31·3276%Game 3Jun 6GS 110@CLE 10228·24·31·27 / 29·29·23·2152%Game 4Jun 8GS 108@CLE 8534·27·25·22 / 25·27·13·2055%
CLE 114@GS 124OT30·26·22·29 / 29·27·28·2374%Game 2Jun 3CLE 103@GS 12228·18·34·23 / 32·27·31·3276%Game 3Jun 6GS 110@CLE 10228·24·31·27 / 29·29·23·2152%Game 4Jun 8GS 108@CLE 8534·27·25·22 / 25·27·13·2055%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 4
Mean probability on the winner
64.2%
Brier over the series
0.1399
A backtest, and a sample of 4. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.