First Round · 2018-19
5 games · Houston Rockets advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 14
UTAH 90@
HOU 12224·20·27·19 / 31·28·24·3974%Game 2Apr 17UTAH 98@HOU 11819·25·23·31 / 39·31·25·2377%Game 3Apr 20HOU 104@UTAH 10128·22·24·30 / 30·25·21·2551%Game 4Apr 22HOU 91@UTAH 10724·23·32·12 / 32·21·23·3147%Game 5Apr 24UTAH 93@HOU 10020·22·27·24 / 20·26·29·2576%
UTAH 90@HOU 12224·20·27·19 / 31·28·24·3974%Game 2Apr 17UTAH 98@HOU 11819·25·23·31 / 39·31·25·2377%Game 3Apr 20HOU 104@UTAH 10128·22·24·30 / 30·25·21·2551%Game 4Apr 22HOU 91@UTAH 10724·23·32·12 / 32·21·23·3147%Game 5Apr 24UTAH 93@HOU 10020·22·27·24 / 20·26·29·2576%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 5
Mean probability on the winner
65.2%
Brier over the series
0.1387
A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.