Conference Semifinals · 2018-19
6 games · Golden State Warriors advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 28
HOU 100@
GS 10419·34·23·24 / 28·25·30·2155%Game 2Apr 30HOU 109@GS 11520·29·26·34 / 29·29·24·3358%Game 3May 4GS 121@HOU 126OT26·23·35·28 / 25·33·33·2169%Game 4May 6GS 108@HOU 11228·26·30·24 / 25·36·32·1970%Game 5May 8HOU 99@GS 10417·26·29·27 / 31·26·15·3260%Game 6May 10GS 118@HOU 11327·30·25·36 / 28·29·30·2632%
HOU 100@GS 10419·34·23·24 / 28·25·30·2155%Game 2Apr 30HOU 109@GS 11520·29·26·34 / 29·29·24·3358%Game 3May 4GS 121@HOU 126OT26·23·35·28 / 25·33·33·2169%Game 4May 6GS 108@HOU 11228·26·30·24 / 25·36·32·1970%Game 5May 8HOU 99@GS 10417·26·29·27 / 31·26·15·3260%Game 6May 10GS 118@HOU 11327·30·25·36 / 28·29·30·2632%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
5 of 6
Mean probability on the winner
57.3%
Brier over the series
0.1987
A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.