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Hardwood
2018-19 season

First Round · 2018-19

Boston Celtics
Boston Celtics

4

final
Indiana Pacers
Indiana Pacers

0

4 games · Boston Celtics advanced

Every game

Game 1Apr 14Indiana PacersIND 74@Boston CelticsBOS 8420·25·8·21 / 20·18·26·2069%Game 2Apr 17Indiana PacersIND 91@Boston CelticsBOS 9933·17·29·12 / 29·23·16·3170%Game 3Apr 19Boston CelticsBOS 104@Indiana PacersIND 9641·18·21·24 / 28·33·12·2347%Game 4Apr 21Boston CelticsBOS 110@Indiana PacersIND 10621·26·26·37 / 23·26·23·3449%

Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.

What the model made of it

Games it favoured correctly

2 of 4

Mean probability on the winner

58.4%

Brier over the series

0.1849

A backtest, and a sample of 4. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.

Forecasts are scored against the closing line. Nothing here is betting advice. How it works