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Hardwood
2018-19 season

First Round · 2018-19

Golden State Warriors
Golden State Warriors

4

final
LA Clippers
LA Clippers

2

6 games · Golden State Warriors advanced

Every game

Game 1Apr 13LA ClippersLAC 104@Golden State WarriorsGS 12127·29·23·25 / 36·33·29·2374%Game 2Apr 15LA ClippersLAC 135@Golden State WarriorsGS 13125·25·44·41 / 33·40·35·2324%Game 3Apr 18Golden State WarriorsGS 132@LA ClippersLAC 10541·32·36·23 / 24·28·24·2948%Game 4Apr 21Golden State WarriorsGS 113@LA ClippersLAC 10532·30·25·26 / 22·32·30·2154%Game 5Apr 24LA ClippersLAC 129@Golden State WarriorsGS 12137·34·33·25 / 41·22·31·2720%Game 6Apr 26Golden State WarriorsGS 129@LA ClippersLAC 11035·37·30·27 / 31·22·25·3251%

Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.

What the model made of it

Games it favoured correctly

3 of 6

Mean probability on the winner

45.3%

Brier over the series

0.3339

A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.

Forecasts are scored against the closing line. Nothing here is betting advice. How it works