Conference Semifinals · 2018-19
5 games · Milwaukee Bucks advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 28
BOS 112@
MIL 9026·26·36·24 / 17·33·21·1925%Game 2Apr 30BOS 102@MIL 12330·25·18·29 / 25·34·39·2569%Game 3May 3MIL 123@BOS 11625·30·40·28 / 30·26·31·2943%Game 4May 6MIL 113@BOS 10122·25·33·33 / 30·19·23·2946%Game 5May 8BOS 91@MIL 11619·20·23·29 / 22·30·28·3676%
BOS 112@MIL 9026·26·36·24 / 17·33·21·1925%Game 2Apr 30BOS 102@MIL 12330·25·18·29 / 25·34·39·2569%Game 3May 3MIL 123@BOS 11625·30·40·28 / 30·26·31·2943%Game 4May 6MIL 113@BOS 10122·25·33·33 / 30·19·23·2946%Game 5May 8BOS 91@MIL 11619·20·23·29 / 22·30·28·3676%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
2 of 5
Mean probability on the winner
51.9%
Brier over the series
0.2659
A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.