Conference Finals · 2018-19
6 games · Toronto Raptors advanced
Every game
Game 1May 15
TOR 100@
MIL 10834·25·24·17 / 23·28·25·3274%Game 2May 17TOR 103@MIL 12521·18·39·25 / 35·29·31·3074%Game 3May 19MIL 112@TOR 1182OT21·30·24·21 / 30·28·19·1953%Game 4May 21MIL 102@TOR 12031·24·26·21 / 32·33·29·2655%Game 5May 23TOR 105@MIL 9922·24·26·33 / 32·17·26·2431%Game 6May 25MIL 94@TOR 10031·19·26·18 / 18·25·28·2962%
TOR 100@MIL 10834·25·24·17 / 23·28·25·3274%Game 2May 17TOR 103@MIL 12521·18·39·25 / 35·29·31·3074%Game 3May 19MIL 112@TOR 1182OT21·30·24·21 / 30·28·19·1953%Game 4May 21MIL 102@TOR 12031·24·26·21 / 32·33·29·2655%Game 5May 23TOR 105@MIL 9922·24·26·33 / 32·17·26·2431%Game 6May 25MIL 94@TOR 10031·19·26·18 / 18·25·28·2962%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
5 of 6
Mean probability on the winner
58.1%
Brier over the series
0.1978
A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.