First Round · 2018-19
4 games · Milwaukee Bucks advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 14
DET 86@
MIL 12118·25·18·25 / 38·32·27·2482%Game 2Apr 17DET 99@MIL 12027·32·17·23 / 38·20·35·2784%Game 3Apr 20MIL 119@DET 10332·35·33·19 / 24·30·24·2563%Game 4Apr 22MIL 127@DET 10426·30·39·32 / 28·34·23·1966%
DET 86@MIL 12118·25·18·25 / 38·32·27·2482%Game 2Apr 17DET 99@MIL 12027·32·17·23 / 38·20·35·2784%Game 3Apr 20MIL 119@DET 10332·35·33·19 / 24·30·24·2563%Game 4Apr 22MIL 127@DET 10426·30·39·32 / 28·34·23·1966%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 4
Mean probability on the winner
73.8%
Brier over the series
0.0777
A backtest, and a sample of 4. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.