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Hardwood
2018-19 season

First Round · 2018-19

Toronto Raptors
Toronto Raptors

4

final
Orlando Magic
Orlando Magic

1

5 games · Toronto Raptors advanced

Every game

Game 1Apr 13Orlando MagicORL 104@Toronto RaptorsTOR 10125·32·18·29 / 30·19·27·2529%Game 2Apr 16Orlando MagicORL 82@Toronto RaptorsTOR 11118·21·27·16 / 26·25·39·2169%Game 3Apr 19Toronto RaptorsTOR 98@Orlando MagicORL 9326·22·28·22 / 21·24·20·2845%Game 4Apr 21Toronto RaptorsTOR 107@Orlando MagicORL 8528·30·24·25 / 26·16·28·1547%Game 5Apr 23Orlando MagicORL 96@Toronto RaptorsTOR 11519·28·23·26 / 35·32·32·1677%

Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.

What the model made of it

Games it favoured correctly

2 of 5

Mean probability on the winner

53.4%

Brier over the series

0.2469

A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.

Forecasts are scored against the closing line. Nothing here is betting advice. How it works