Conference Semifinals · 2018-19
7 games · Toronto Raptors advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 27
PHI 95@
TOR 10831·21·29·14 / 39·22·31·1673%Game 2Apr 29PHI 94@TOR 8926·25·18·25 / 17·21·25·2625%Game 3May 2TOR 95@PHI 11629·24·28·14 / 32·32·25·2756%Game 4May 5TOR 101@PHI 9624·23·28·26 / 21·24·30·2140%Game 5May 7PHI 89@TOR 12526·17·27·19 / 27·37·28·3369%Game 6May 9TOR 101@PHI 11221·22·24·34 / 29·29·29·2553%Game 7May 12PHI 90@TOR 9213·27·24·26 / 18·26·23·2571%
PHI 95@TOR 10831·21·29·14 / 39·22·31·1673%Game 2Apr 29PHI 94@TOR 8926·25·18·25 / 17·21·25·2625%Game 3May 2TOR 95@PHI 11629·24·28·14 / 32·32·25·2756%Game 4May 5TOR 101@PHI 9624·23·28·26 / 21·24·30·2140%Game 5May 7PHI 89@TOR 12526·17·27·19 / 27·37·28·3369%Game 6May 9TOR 101@PHI 11221·22·24·34 / 29·29·29·2553%Game 7May 12PHI 90@TOR 9213·27·24·26 / 18·26·23·2571%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
5 of 7
Mean probability on the winner
55.3%
Brier over the series
0.2274
A backtest, and a sample of 7. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.