Conference Semifinals · 2018-19
7 games · Portland Trail Blazers advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 29
POR 113@
DEN 12132·23·29·29 / 32·26·35·2849%Game 2May 1POR 97@DEN 9028·22·28·19 / 23·12·29·2644%Game 3May 3DEN 137@POR 1404OT17·30·29·26 / 23·25·33·2173%Game 4May 5DEN 116@POR 11229·28·27·32 / 33·30·14·3527%Game 5May 7POR 98@DEN 12425·22·18·33 / 31·34·28·3157%Game 6May 9DEN 108@POR 11934·20·26·28 / 26·32·29·3265%Game 7May 12POR 100@DEN 9617·22·32·29 / 29·19·24·2439%
POR 113@DEN 12132·23·29·29 / 32·26·35·2849%Game 2May 1POR 97@DEN 9028·22·28·19 / 23·12·29·2644%Game 3May 3DEN 137@POR 1404OT17·30·29·26 / 23·25·33·2173%Game 4May 5DEN 116@POR 11229·28·27·32 / 33·30·14·3527%Game 5May 7POR 98@DEN 12425·22·18·33 / 31·34·28·3157%Game 6May 9DEN 108@POR 11934·20·26·28 / 26·32·29·3265%Game 7May 12POR 100@DEN 9617·22·32·29 / 29·19·24·2439%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
3 of 7
Mean probability on the winner
50.8%
Brier over the series
0.2635
A backtest, and a sample of 7. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.