Conference Finals · 2018-19
4 games · Golden State Warriors advanced
Every game
Game 1May 14
POR 94@
GS 11623·22·26·23 / 27·27·23·3970%Game 2May 16POR 111@GS 11431·34·24·22 / 29·21·39·2571%Game 3May 18GS 110@POR 9927·26·29·28 / 29·37·13·2044%Game 4May 20GS 119@POR 117OT36·29·22·24 / 35·34·26·1647%
POR 94@GS 11623·22·26·23 / 27·27·23·3970%Game 2May 16POR 111@GS 11431·34·24·22 / 29·21·39·2571%Game 3May 18GS 110@POR 9927·26·29·28 / 29·37·13·2044%Game 4May 20GS 119@POR 117OT36·29·22·24 / 35·34·26·1647%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
2 of 4
Mean probability on the winner
58.1%
Brier over the series
0.1913
A backtest, and a sample of 4. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.