First Round · 2018-19
7 games · Denver Nuggets advanced
Every game
Game 1Apr 13
SA 101@
DEN 9625·34·13·29 / 20·31·17·2837%Game 2Apr 16SA 105@DEN 11426·33·23·23 / 21·28·26·3962%Game 3Apr 18DEN 108@SA 11822·36·26·24 / 31·30·27·3061%Game 4Apr 20DEN 117@SA 10322·32·37·26 / 34·20·25·2436%Game 5Apr 23SA 90@DEN 10819·23·21·27 / 26·27·32·2367%Game 6Apr 25DEN 103@SA 12024·36·25·18 / 34·30·26·3056%Game 7Apr 27SA 86@DEN 9013·21·27·25 / 23·24·25·1865%
SA 101@DEN 9625·34·13·29 / 20·31·17·2837%Game 2Apr 16SA 105@DEN 11426·33·23·23 / 21·28·26·3962%Game 3Apr 18DEN 108@SA 11822·36·26·24 / 31·30·27·3061%Game 4Apr 20DEN 117@SA 10322·32·37·26 / 34·20·25·2436%Game 5Apr 23SA 90@DEN 10819·23·21·27 / 26·27·32·2367%Game 6Apr 25DEN 103@SA 12024·36·25·18 / 34·30·26·3056%Game 7Apr 27SA 86@DEN 9013·21·27·25 / 23·24·25·1865%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
5 of 7
Mean probability on the winner
54.9%
Brier over the series
0.2184
A backtest, and a sample of 7. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.