NBA Finals · 2018-19
6 games · Toronto Raptors advanced
Every game
Game 1May 30
GS 109@
TOR 11821·28·32·28 / 25·34·29·3062%Game 2Jun 2GS 109@TOR 10426·28·34·21 / 27·32·21·2435%Game 3Jun 5TOR 123@GS 10936·24·36·27 / 29·23·31·2633%Game 4Jun 7TOR 105@GS 9217·25·37·26 / 23·23·21·2537%Game 5Jun 10GS 106@TOR 10534·28·22·22 / 28·28·22·2730%Game 6Jun 13TOR 114@GS 11033·27·26·28 / 32·25·31·2240%
GS 109@TOR 11821·28·32·28 / 25·34·29·3062%Game 2Jun 2GS 109@TOR 10426·28·34·21 / 27·32·21·2435%Game 3Jun 5TOR 123@GS 10936·24·36·27 / 29·23·31·2633%Game 4Jun 7TOR 105@GS 9217·25·37·26 / 23·23·21·2537%Game 5Jun 10GS 106@TOR 10534·28·22·22 / 28·28·22·2730%Game 6Jun 13TOR 114@GS 11033·27·26·28 / 32·25·31·2240%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
1 of 6
Mean probability on the winner
39.5%
Brier over the series
0.3771
A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.