Conference Semifinals · 2019-20
5 games · Los Angeles Lakers advanced
Every game
Game 1Sep 4
HOU 112@
LAL 9729·34·22·27 / 28·27·24·1826%Game 2Sep 6HOU 109@LAL 11720·31·41·17 / 36·31·23·2767%Game 3Sep 8LAL 112@HOU 10232·29·21·30 / 33·31·18·2044%Game 4Sep 10LAL 110@HOU 10026·31·29·24 / 22·19·29·3045%Game 5Sep 12HOU 96@LAL 11920·31·18·27 / 35·27·33·2473%
HOU 112@LAL 9729·34·22·27 / 28·27·24·1826%Game 2Sep 6HOU 109@LAL 11720·31·41·17 / 36·31·23·2767%Game 3Sep 8LAL 112@HOU 10232·29·21·30 / 33·31·18·2044%Game 4Sep 10LAL 110@HOU 10026·31·29·24 / 22·19·29·3045%Game 5Sep 12HOU 96@LAL 11920·31·18·27 / 35·27·33·2473%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
2 of 5
Mean probability on the winner
50.9%
Brier over the series
0.2709
A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.