Conference Semifinals · 2019-20
7 games · Denver Nuggets advanced
Every game
Game 1Sep 3
DEN 97@
LAC 12031·20·16·30 / 31·38·22·2979%Game 2Sep 5DEN 110@LAC 10144·28·17·21 / 25·31·21·2420%Game 3Sep 7LAC 113@DEN 10733·24·27·29 / 32·27·29·1953%Game 4Sep 9LAC 96@DEN 8526·22·25·23 / 12·28·23·2254%Game 5Sep 11DEN 111@LAC 10523·21·29·38 / 28·28·24·2521%Game 6Sep 13LAC 98@DEN 11134·29·16·19 / 26·21·30·3448%Game 7Sep 15DEN 104@LAC 8924·30·28·22 / 24·32·18·1527%
DEN 97@LAC 12031·20·16·30 / 31·38·22·2979%Game 2Sep 5DEN 110@LAC 10144·28·17·21 / 25·31·21·2420%Game 3Sep 7LAC 113@DEN 10733·24·27·29 / 32·27·29·1953%Game 4Sep 9LAC 96@DEN 8526·22·25·23 / 12·28·23·2254%Game 5Sep 11DEN 111@LAC 10523·21·29·38 / 28·28·24·2521%Game 6Sep 13LAC 98@DEN 11134·29·16·19 / 26·21·30·3448%Game 7Sep 15DEN 104@LAC 8924·30·28·22 / 24·32·18·1527%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
3 of 7
Mean probability on the winner
43.1%
Brier over the series
0.3639
A backtest, and a sample of 7. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.