First Round · 2019-20
5 games · Los Angeles Lakers advanced
Every game
Game 1Aug 18
POR 100@
LAL 9336·21·21·22 / 25·31·19·1830%Game 2Aug 20POR 88@LAL 11119·20·19·30 / 27·29·32·2366%Game 3Aug 22LAL 116@POR 10825·28·40·23 / 29·28·29·2244%Game 4Aug 24LAL 135@POR 11543·37·32·23 / 25·26·36·2847%Game 5Aug 29POR 122@LAL 13131·37·24·30 / 35·33·32·3174%
POR 100@LAL 9336·21·21·22 / 25·31·19·1830%Game 2Aug 20POR 88@LAL 11119·20·19·30 / 27·29·32·2366%Game 3Aug 22LAL 116@POR 10825·28·40·23 / 29·28·29·2244%Game 4Aug 24LAL 135@POR 11543·37·32·23 / 25·26·36·2847%Game 5Aug 29POR 122@LAL 13131·37·24·30 / 35·33·32·3174%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
2 of 5
Mean probability on the winner
52.2%
Brier over the series
0.2531
A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.