MIL v ORL · First Round · Hardwood

First Round · 2019-20

Milwaukee Bucks

4

final

1

5 games · Milwaukee Bucks advanced

Every game

MIL 11033·29·30·30 / 23·29·27·3122%Game 2Aug 20

MIL 11113·30·30·23 / 25·39·29·1875%Game 3Aug 22

ORL 10731·39·29·22 / 23·20·34·3054%Game 4Aug 24

ORL 10622·36·26·37 / 18·34·29·2557%Game 5Aug 29

MIL 11821·29·29·25 / 26·41·23·2881%

Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.

What the model made of it

Games it favoured correctly

4 of 5

Mean probability on the winner

57.7%

Brier over the series

0.2219

A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.