First Round · 2019-20
4 games · Toronto Raptors advanced
Every game
Game 1Aug 17
BKN 110@
TOR 13420·31·35·24 / 37·36·22·3980%Game 2Aug 19BKN 99@TOR 10433·20·27·19 / 29·21·24·3082%Game 3Aug 21TOR 117@BKN 9224·33·27·33 / 17·25·26·2461%Game 4Aug 23TOR 150@BKN 12239·38·39·34 / 32·36·19·3564%
BKN 110@TOR 13420·31·35·24 / 37·36·22·3980%Game 2Aug 19BKN 99@TOR 10433·20·27·19 / 29·21·24·3082%Game 3Aug 21TOR 117@BKN 9224·33·27·33 / 17·25·26·2461%Game 4Aug 23TOR 150@BKN 12239·38·39·34 / 32·36·19·3564%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 4
Mean probability on the winner
71.8%
Brier over the series
0.0878
A backtest, and a sample of 4. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.