First Round · 2019-20
7 games · Denver Nuggets advanced
Every game
Game 1Aug 17
UTAH 125@
DEN 135OT25·27·31·32 / 31·28·19·3760%Game 2Aug 19UTAH 124@DEN 10527·34·43·20 / 25·23·29·2837%Game 3Aug 21DEN 87@UTAH 12414·28·20·25 / 25·34·35·3065%Game 4Aug 23DEN 127@UTAH 12936·29·24·38 / 33·31·33·3271%Game 5Aug 25UTAH 107@DEN 11732·31·23·21 / 33·21·28·3552%Game 6Aug 30DEN 119@UTAH 10730·31·27·31 / 36·20·23·2831%Game 7Sep 1UTAH 78@DEN 8021·15·24·18 / 26·24·15·1559%
UTAH 125@DEN 135OT25·27·31·32 / 31·28·19·3760%Game 2Aug 19UTAH 124@DEN 10527·34·43·20 / 25·23·29·2837%Game 3Aug 21DEN 87@UTAH 12414·28·20·25 / 25·34·35·3065%Game 4Aug 23DEN 127@UTAH 12936·29·24·38 / 33·31·33·3271%Game 5Aug 25UTAH 107@DEN 11732·31·23·21 / 33·21·28·3552%Game 6Aug 30DEN 119@UTAH 10730·31·27·31 / 36·20·23·2831%Game 7Sep 1UTAH 78@DEN 8021·15·24·18 / 26·24·15·1559%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
5 of 7
Mean probability on the winner
53.5%
Brier over the series
0.2347
A backtest, and a sample of 7. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.