First Round · 2019-20
4 games · Boston Celtics advanced
Every game
Game 1Aug 17
PHI 101@
BOS 10926·23·30·22 / 25·30·20·3473%Game 2Aug 19PHI 101@BOS 12833·24·18·26 / 27·38·33·3073%Game 3Aug 21BOS 102@PHI 9426·25·25·26 / 24·25·23·2252%Game 4Aug 23BOS 110@PHI 10627·30·32·21 / 32·26·19·2953%
PHI 101@BOS 10926·23·30·22 / 25·30·20·3473%Game 2Aug 19PHI 101@BOS 12833·24·18·26 / 27·38·33·3073%Game 3Aug 21BOS 102@PHI 9426·25·25·26 / 24·25·23·2252%Game 4Aug 23BOS 110@PHI 10627·30·32·21 / 32·26·19·2953%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
4 of 4
Mean probability on the winner
63.1%
Brier over the series
0.1467
A backtest, and a sample of 4. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.