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Hardwood
2019-20 season

Conference Semifinals · 2019-20

Toronto Raptors
Toronto Raptors

3

final
Boston Celtics
Boston Celtics

4

7 games · Boston Celtics advanced

Every game

Game 1Aug 30Boston CelticsBOS 112@Toronto RaptorsTOR 9439·20·29·24 / 23·19·31·2132%Game 2Sep 1Boston CelticsBOS 102@Toronto RaptorsTOR 9928·22·20·32 / 28·20·30·2136%Game 3Sep 3Toronto RaptorsTOR 104@Boston CelticsBOS 10328·19·29·28 / 33·24·23·2334%Game 4Sep 5Toronto RaptorsTOR 100@Boston CelticsBOS 9331·18·32·19 / 27·22·24·2036%Game 5Sep 7Boston CelticsBOS 111@Toronto RaptorsTOR 8925·37·25·24 / 11·24·28·2633%Game 6Sep 9Toronto RaptorsTOR 125@Boston CelticsBOS 1222OT21·27·33·17 / 25·27·25·2133%Game 7Sep 11Boston CelticsBOS 92@Toronto RaptorsTOR 8726·24·22·20 / 27·19·25·1637%

Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.

What the model made of it

Games it favoured correctly

0 of 7

Mean probability on the winner

34.4%

Brier over the series

0.4309

A backtest, and a sample of 7. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.

Forecasts are scored against the closing line. Nothing here is betting advice. How it works