First Round · 2020-21
6 games · Phoenix Suns advanced
Every game
Game 1May 23
LAL 90@
PHX 9925·20·23·22 / 32·21·28·1873%Game 2May 25LAL 109@PHX 10230·23·26·30 / 24·23·25·3028%Game 3May 27PHX 95@LAL 10928·12·23·32 / 27·16·33·3354%Game 4May 30PHX 100@LAL 9223·31·27·19 / 24·26·15·2742%Game 5Jun 1LAL 85@PHX 11526·10·27·22 / 34·32·26·2367%Game 6Jun 3PHX 113@LAL 10036·26·27·24 / 14·27·35·2449%
LAL 90@PHX 9925·20·23·22 / 32·21·28·1873%Game 2May 25LAL 109@PHX 10230·23·26·30 / 24·23·25·3028%Game 3May 27PHX 95@LAL 10928·12·23·32 / 27·16·33·3354%Game 4May 30PHX 100@LAL 9223·31·27·19 / 24·26·15·2742%Game 5Jun 1LAL 85@PHX 11526·10·27·22 / 34·32·26·2367%Game 6Jun 3PHX 113@LAL 10036·26·27·24 / 14·27·35·2449%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
3 of 6
Mean probability on the winner
52.0%
Brier over the series
0.2532
A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.