NBA Finals · 2020-21
6 games · Milwaukee Bucks advanced
Every game
Game 1Jul 6
MIL 105@
PHX 11826·23·27·29 / 30·27·35·2669%Game 2Jul 8MIL 108@PHX 11829·16·33·30 / 26·30·32·3070%Game 3Jul 11PHX 100@MIL 12028·17·31·24 / 25·35·38·2255%Game 4Jul 14PHX 103@MIL 10923·29·30·21 / 20·32·24·3360%Game 5Jul 17MIL 123@PHX 11921·43·36·23 / 37·24·29·2936%Game 6Jul 20PHX 98@MIL 10516·31·30·21 / 29·13·35·2864%
MIL 105@PHX 11826·23·27·29 / 30·27·35·2669%Game 2Jul 8MIL 108@PHX 11829·16·33·30 / 26·30·32·3070%Game 3Jul 11PHX 100@MIL 12028·17·31·24 / 25·35·38·2255%Game 4Jul 14PHX 103@MIL 10923·29·30·21 / 20·32·24·3360%Game 5Jul 17MIL 123@PHX 11921·43·36·23 / 37·24·29·2936%Game 6Jul 20PHX 98@MIL 10516·31·30·21 / 29·13·35·2864%Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.
What the model made of it
Games it favoured correctly
5 of 6
Mean probability on the winner
59.0%
Brier over the series
0.1808
A backtest, and a sample of 6. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.