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Hardwood
2020-21 season

First Round · 2020-21

New York Knicks
New York Knicks

1

final
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks

4

5 games · Atlanta Hawks advanced

Every game

Game 1May 23Atlanta HawksATL 107@New York KnicksNY 10524·28·19·36 / 16·34·23·3236%Game 2May 26Atlanta HawksATL 92@New York KnicksNY 10127·30·18·17 / 20·24·32·2561%Game 3May 28New York KnicksNY 94@Atlanta HawksATL 10531·13·28·22 / 29·29·28·1961%Game 4May 30New York KnicksNY 96@Atlanta HawksATL 11326·23·22·25 / 25·28·35·2563%Game 5Jun 2Atlanta HawksATL 103@New York KnicksNY 8921·31·22·29 / 21·26·15·2744%

Each game opens its own page with the period breakdown, the team totals and the full player box score.

What the model made of it

Games it favoured correctly

3 of 5

Mean probability on the winner

53.0%

Brier over the series

0.2330

A backtest, and a sample of 5. The model was refit on games strictly earlier than each of these, so it never saw the result — but a record over a handful of games is not evidence in either direction. The one that means something is on the accuracy page, over 25,749.

Forecasts are scored against the closing line. Nothing here is betting advice. How it works